Data Scientist/ Business Intelligence Analyst / UI/UX Designer
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The dual-axis line chart compares wage growth in the manufacturing sector (AHEMAN) with overall wage growth across all sectors (AWHAE). Here’s what you can observe:
AHEMAN (cyan line): This represents the average hourly earnings in the manufacturing sector. It has shown consistent growth over time, with some minor fluctuations, especially around major economic downturns such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. After 2012, the wage growth in manufacturing gradually picks up and steadily increases.
AWHAE (magenta line): This represents the average hourly wage across all sectors. It generally follows a similar trend to manufacturing wages, though the increase is more pronounced during certain periods, particularly post-2012. A sharp drop around the pandemic period is visible but quickly recovers and surpasses previous levels.
This comparison suggests that wage growth in the manufacturing sector generally aligns with wage growth across all sectors, with both experiencing similar economic impacts but recovering at different paces.
The scatter plot shows the relationship between AHEMAN and AWHAE. Each magenta dot represents the actual data points, while the cyan line represents the linear regression line that fits the data. The positive slope of the line suggests a strong positive correlation between wage growth in the manufacturing sector and overall wage growth across all sectors. As hourly earnings in manufacturing increase, so do overall wages, indicating a linked trend between the two.
The Pearson correlation coefficient between wage growth in the manufacturing sector (AHEMAN) and wage growth across all sectors (AWHAE) is approximately 0.84. This indicates a strong positive correlation between the two variables.
Given this strong correlation, it suggests that as wages in the manufacturing sector increase, wages across all sectors tend to increase as well, and vice versa.
The linear regression results show a strong association between AHEMAN and AWHAE. The AHEMAN coefficient is approximately 1.91, indicating that for every dollar increase in hourly earnings in the manufacturing sector, the overall wage index rises by about 1.91 units. The model’s R-squared value is around 0.70, meaning that approximately 70% of the variation in AWHAE is explained by changes in AHEMAN. The highly significant p-value confirms the strength of this relationship.
This project involves a comprehensive economic analysis using data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database. The study focuses on identifying and testing various economic hypotheses related to wage growth in different sectors, inflation, and broader economic trends. By leveraging historical data, the project aims to uncover relationships and patterns that can inform future economic forecasts.
One of the core hypotheses explored in this study, Hypothesis 4, investigates the relationship between wage growth in the manufacturing sector (AHEMAN) and overall wage growth across all sectors (AWHAE). The analysis considers how wage trends in manufacturing influence the broader labor market, with potential implications for economic policy and inflation.
Client : N/A (Personal Project)
Date : August 2024
Category : Economic/Financial
Data Scientist/ Business Intelligence Analyst / UI/UX Designer